AUDUSD Technical Analysis

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting while dropping the tightening bias in the
  statement but adding a slight pushback against a March rate cut.
• The US CPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month with the disinflationary trend
  reversing.
• The US PPI beat
  expectations across the board by a big margin.
• The US Jobless Claims beat
  expectations with the data remaining steady.
• The latest US PMIs
  increased further from the prior month with the Manufacturing PMI beating
  expectations and the Services PMI missing.
• The US Retail Sales missed
  expectations across the board by a big margin.
• The market now expects the first rate cut in June.

AUD

• The
  RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected with the central bank
  maintaining the usual tightening bias and data dependent language.
• The
  recent Monthly CPI report missed expectations across
  the board which was a welcome development for the RBA.
• The
  latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
  margin.
• The
  wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
  growth in Australia remains strong.
• The
  latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling
  back into contraction while the Services PMI jumped back into expansion.
• The
  market expects the first rate cut in August.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD broke
above the key resistance level
where we had also the red 21 moving average for confluence and
extended the rally to new highs. The buyers are targeting the next resistance
at 0.6623 but the momentum seems to be waning a bit. The sellers, on the other
hand, will likely wait for the price to reach the 0.6620 level before piling in
for new shorts or look for some key breakouts on the lower timeframes.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
been diverging with the
MACD recently.
This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, we got pullbacks into the red 21 moving average where
the buyers kept on stepping in to target the 0.6620 level. The moving average
and the black trendline will now
be key levels for the sellers as they will need to break through them to gain
more conviction for a bearish trend and target new lows.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a resistance zone around the 0.6580 level which the buyers will need to
break to increase the bullish bets into the 0.6620 level. There is no important
data till next Tuesday, so the market will likely be driven by the technicals
until then.