The euro put up a stellar showing yesterday, climbing strongly against the dollar in a push to around 1.0900 to a high of 1.1095. Since then, we’ve seen price settle down a bit and retreat back towards 1.0940 currently.
The 200-hour moving average (blue line) @ 1.0934 is a key focus point at the moment as such. Hold above and the near-term bias remains more bullish but break below that and it leaves exposed the 1.1000 level again.
Those are two key levels that buyers need to be wary about in keeping the momentum from yesterday.
As things stand, a lot will ride on the risk mood (the feel on the Russia-Ukraine situation) and also the ECB later today.
But from a technical perspective, it is making it tough for bears to keep a firm stand as the jump in the euro yesterday has invalidated some of the technical vulnerabilities from before.
In the case of EUR/USD above, the push back above 1.1000 is the key pivot in my view. And in EUR/GBP:
We have seen price push back above 0.8300 on the week though gains are now capped by the 100-day moving average (red line). So, perhaps that is an area where sellers can lean on. But again, the break back above 0.8300 is invalidating the falling momentum previously.
Likewise, in the case of EUR/JPY:
Price has moved back above the technical support region of 127.38-49. That has invalidated the downside break last week and it is throwing a bit of a spanner in the works for euro bears.
The ECB will be the next key risk event to confirm or deny the moves from yesterday so let’s see what that has to offer.