The CAD dumped – but only briefly – before returning to the low 1.36s where it was before Tuesday’s data reports. Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, analyzes Loonie’s outlook.
The data mix could not have been worse for the CAD
The data mix could not have been worse for the CAD on Tuesday – the Canadian CPI print came in below forecasts and US data generally bettered expectations across the board.
The September CPI results reduce the risk of near-term tightening and set the bar quite high for any additional tightening moves for the moment. But the threat of tighter policy is not entirely extinguished, given elevated wage growth and inflation expectations here.
More choppy range trade in the short run looks likely as weaker risk appetite and firmer crude oil counterbalance each other but if Tuesday’s data mix could not push funds above 1.37, it’s not clear to me what (outside of some significant shock) will.