- GBP/USD has a fresh 30-month high in the bag after Fed rate cut.
- BoE rate call is in the barrel for Thursday, but no moves are expected.
- UK Retail Sales set to wrap up the week on Friday.
GBP/USD hit a fresh 30-month high on Wednesday, pushed within inches of the 1.3300 handle after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) trimmed interest rates by a jumbo 50 bps and chalking in the US central bank’s first rate cut in over four years. The UK’s Bank of England (BoE) is set to deliver its own September rate call early Thursday, but no moves are expected from the BoE after already cutting reference rates earlier this summer.
Forex Today: Investors’ attention now shifts to the US economic health
The BoE is expected to hold interest rates steady at 5.0% in a seven-to-two vote. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) previously voted five-to-four to reduce interest rates by 25 bps from 5.25%, and markets are expecting the BoE to hold steady for this meeting.
The Fed’s dot plot of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Summary of Economic Projections was also revised downward from the central bank’s previous rate outlook. The median policy expectations from the Fed now see the Fed Funds rate at 4.4% by year-end 2024 and 3.4% by year-end 2025, down from 5.1% and 4.1%, respectively.
Going deeper into the Fed’s notes, Fed policymakers now see US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.0% flat through 2024, down from the previous print of 2.1% in June. Fed officials also expected the US Unemployment Rate to settle around 4.4% by the end of 2024.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell did his best to soothe markets during his ensuing press conference following the Fed’s bumper 50 bps rate trim, highlighting that the Fed will resume its wait-and-see approach to incoming economic data in the weeks to come before deciding on further rate cuts. The Fed head’s measured approach to explaining the Fed’s policy adjustment helped to keep market flows on-balance, and rate markets are pricing in 65% chance of no further action at the FOMC’s next rate call on November 7.
GBP/USD price forecast
Despite rallying into a fresh 30-month high near 1.3300 on Wednesday, markets quickly pared back the day’s volatility to keep Cable pinned near familiar levels around the 1.3200 handle. A firm bullish trend is still baked into daily candlesticks with the pair climbing above the 50–day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3000.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.